The Private Equity Exit Backlog: What It Actually Means If You Own a Florida Business

If you sold a piece of your company to a private equity sponsor in the last few years, or you're thinking about it now, you've probably felt a shift in the air that nobody has fully explained to you. Deals are taking longer. Buyers who used to move fast are asking more questions. And if you rolled equity expecting a second payday by now, that check may not be coming anytime soon. There's a structural reason for all of this, and it isn't about your business. It's about a pileup across the entire private equity industry, and it changes the calculus for anyone in Florida who is selling, has sold, or is watching a competitor get bought.

Why is everyone suddenly talking about a private equity exit backlog?

It's the pile of companies that private equity firms own but have not been able to sell. As of Bain & Company's Global Private Equity Report 2026, that pile stands at roughly 32,000 companies worth a combined $3.8 trillion. Firms raised money, bought businesses, and now can't move them out the door at the pace their own investors expect.

The backlog built up for a simple reason. Many of these companies were bought between 2021 and 2022, when prices were high and debt was cheap. Interest rates rose, growth got harder to manufacture, and the exits that were supposed to happen in three or four years didn't happen. Firms are now holding assets for an average of about seven years, up from an average of five to six years across 2010 through 2021, according to Bain. Almost 40% of portfolio companies have now been held for more than five years, up from 29% in 2019, per the same report. Every part of the private equity supply chain, from fundraising to returns, is backed up behind this.

I sold to private equity and rolled equity. Where is my second payday?

It's probably delayed because your buyer is delayed. If you sold in 2021 and rolled 20 or 30 percent of the equity, expecting a recapitalization or a second sale within a few years, you are living the backlog firsthand. Distributions to investors as a share of net asset value have stayed below 15% for four straight years, a record low for the modern industry and a level not seen since the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis, according to Bain. Funds from 2017 through 2021 are underdelivering against their own historical benchmarks for distributions to paid-in capital.

What that means for you is not abstract. It means the fund that owns your rolled equity is under real pressure from its own investors to generate cash, and it may not have a clean path to do that on the timeline you were promised. You are a minority holder in a business you no longer control, with no fixed date for liquidity. That is an uncomfortable place to sit, and it's worth having a candid, unemotional conversation about what your equity is actually worth today and what your realistic options are for getting some liquidity sooner rather than later.

I'm planning to sell to a sponsor. Has anything really changed for me?

Yes. Sponsors are choosier, slower, and more focused on companies that don't add to their own backlog problem. GPs surveyed by StepStone and Bain for the 2026 GP Survey cited inflated seller expectations and diligence red flags, things like inconsistent earnings quality or customer concentration, as the two biggest obstacles to getting deals done. A sponsor evaluating your business today is thinking about how they will exit it in five to seven years, not just what they will pay for it now.

Practically, this means you need to prepare further in advance than owners did in 2019 or 2020. Clean financials, a credible growth story that does not depend on multiple expansion, and a clear answer for why your business will be easier to sell than the one currently sitting in someone else's backlog. Tom Brubaker works directly with owners on this kind of preparation well before a business goes to market, because the owners who prepare early are the ones who still get strong offers in a slower environment.

Could I buy a piece of a platform instead of a whole company? What is a carve-out?

A carve-out happens when a private equity firm cannot sell an entire platform company, so it sells off individual pieces or divisions instead. This is one of the more overlooked opportunities created by the backlog. When a $200 million platform won't sell whole, its regional divisions or non-core business lines often do, and those pieces are frequently sized right for a lower middle market buyer with five to fifty million in enterprise value.

If you have been waiting for the right acquisition to grow your own company, carve-outs are worth watching closely over the next year. They tend to come to market with existing customer bases, trained staff, and real revenue, which is a very different proposition than starting something from scratch.

My industry got rolled up in 2021. What happens to my business now?

If you're in home services, medical, industrial, or contracting, you already know this. Florida absorbed a disproportionate share of the 2021 roll-up wave because so much of that capital chased Sun Belt growth and warm-weather demographics. Many of those platforms are now sitting in the backlog, held longer than planned, and facing the same distribution pressure described above.

That has two effects on you if you're still independent in one of these industries. First, some of your regional competitors may be quietly for sale as carve-outs or distressed exits sooner than expected, which changes the competitive landscape. Second, if you're considering a sale yourself, buyers in these sectors are more selective about who they add next, and they will scrutinize whether your business improves their story or adds to their own problem. Positioning matters more than it did three years ago.

Is the exit window actually opening in 2026?

There's real disagreement here, and it depends on which source you read. Bain's own 2026 report is optimistic, citing easing interest rates, a strong corporate M&A market, and the $7.2 billion Medline IPO as signs that GPs expect exit momentum to build through the year. The majority of GPs surveyed for the 2026 StepStone/Bain GP Survey said they expect to complete more exits this year than last.

PitchBook is more cautious. Its 2026 US Private Equity Outlook: Midyear Update, published in June 2026, maintains its prediction that assets nearing maturity will exit at a slower pace than they did five years ago, and states plainly that the market has a long way to go before aging assets meaningfully clear out of the system. Both firms agree conditions are improving. They disagree on how much and how fast. The honest answer for a Florida owner is that the window may be opening, but it is opening unevenly, and the businesses that benefit most will be the ones that are genuinely ready to sell rather than the ones simply hoping the market turns.

What should a Florida business owner do now?

Get an honest, current picture of where your business stands before you assume anything about timing. That starts with a state-certified appraiser preparing an opinion of value grounded in your actual financials and your actual market, not a five-year-old assumption or a number a buyer floated once in passing. Whether you rolled equity in a prior sale, you're weighing an offer from a sponsor, you're eyeing a carve-out opportunity, or you're simply trying to understand what a roll-up wave means for your industry, the decisions in front of you depend heavily on your specific numbers and your specific goals. Any question involving tax treatment or deal structure depends on your specific situation and should be worked through with your own advisors alongside your broker.

TAMBAY Mergers & Acquisitions is a boutique, principal-led firm, which means when you call, you get Tom Brubaker directly rather than a rotating team of junior associates. If you want a straight conversation about what the current market actually means for your business, reach out to Tom Brubaker at TAMBAY Mergers & Acquisitions to talk through your specific situation.